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While i still think OPEC countries are important their production cuts coupled with the fact the US is out pacing their production with shale, squares it for me. I’m under the impression there is no shortage of oil unless created via artificial slowing of the supply. The price of oil has risen since last year and OIL companies want a higher price for sure while production is artificially low, but that does not mean they will get what they want, US rigs keep coming up.
The spike up on the trump tweet happened when these numbers were released
That was a surprise number of 3.3m, which normally would suggest a lower price, but because of the trump tweet the price jumped up, which means we have it priced in AND we are at a 3 year high @ close to $68. My trade would be short given everything I’ve read.
The attack does not seem to be a big one but i hate the fact that over the weekend gaps can be nasty. I would expect WTI to clip that $68 if not it’s on its way down now. If it passes that $68 trend level you might see price pop up to the top side because people who are short will pull out. That’s my theory anyway.
I had a quick look at the COT report and I’m getting mixed signals, Commercial traders are short and non-Commercial traders are long, but that report was made on the 10th, 2 days before the trump tweet.