pokrat replies to: The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!


I believe I understand the “time and range” and not sure I understand Meta levels. Np. I will wait for the right time if and when that happens..

My Comment on “Do what Market has to do to survive” has far deeper meaning to it and it is tied to Currency Strength driven by fundamentals…. I am fully aware of manipulations and games played ‘with price’ during events. I have seen it all and I have played the strength game for quite some time now…

What I mean by “Do what Market has to do to survive” is the following….. SM or MM or bucket shops can take counterparty trades during accumulation all they want BUT (apart from the cartels you refer to), even they have limited funds or capacity (huge but not infinite… example Lehman). They simple cannot keep on going against JPY strength or weakness as JPY is the world’s funding currency using JPY just as an example during risk on/off. They will have to “add here and offload there” across JPY pairs also to align themselves with the fundamental long term moves via pushing prices up and down and up and down via spikes etc. This is the function of the market.. They have to… in order to maintain the mathematical correlation that should be enforced at all times.

If I add here and I go in loss, there are many other opportunities to add in other pairs under the same governing principle of whatever your entries dictate. That is why I feel “trade small and trade often/frequently” is a good solution to go along with manipulation and not against it.

The key is TIME DECAY and LEVERAGE DECAY and many do not understand what I mean by this. The decay of your analysis begins to take place the moment you make an entry in the market… it HAS to because the market variability is just too high to fight against…. you simply have to go with the flow, see what happens, wait and move on to something else that comes along… rinse/repeat/wait/exit with RR of 10 across open positions or take the damn loss and repeat the cycle again and again. Math is just Math when it comes to currencies. One has to get aggressive when things go your way in order to pad your account for times when things don’t go your way… and there are many such buckets in a 24×5 (I have the precise count in actual HH:MM when price will noise thru and do nothing more than a go here and go there… generating fake “time and range” to lure others to join the bandwagon. This is a function of market and as I have said before, my model will FAIL if I am not trading 28 pairs…. it will not work on one pair but it might work on all tradeable pairs for one currency… it is how fiat currency markets are designed to function… it must be manipulated to keep the regime going…. it has to, in order for so many countries to use USD as their reserve currency. it has to maintain this dance or balance for all economies to thrive in a cyclical manner (The famous saying “US Sneezes and the world market catches a cold” is there for a reason!) and this dance or balance simply cannot be maintained via order flow among participants in a decentralized market structure… this should be the biggest eye-opener from this thread if nothing else.

Another market design example: UAE (Dubai) is a major financial hub (similar to HKD or Singapore). Their currencies are pegged to USD. How would they do business with Europe? They HAVE to come to New York to “exchange” their Dirhams into EUR or SGD or HKD. This is how the world economies operate… everything flows thru the USD, everything flows thru the currency exchanges. It is all about Money Flow and not Order Flow.

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