jtrade replies to: Best times to trade pairs


I have been trading Forex for 11 years now and have evaluated hundreds of methods, indicators, and signals. Based purely on over 40,000 hours of experience, I would advise you to trade when one or both currencies of your pair have open banks and exchanges. While the market does move to the left 24 hours a day, the most active hours for it moving up and down are when the people that use that currency are awake and trading it. That is also when the fundamentals are publicly released. You only make money when price is moving up and down, not sideways. Since banks produce an estimated 90% of the trading volume, then you are more likely to find trades when those banks are actively trading. Successful trading is about following the money, so first, the money must be present. Holidays and days without news normally have much less range than active days with fundamentals. Not sure how you would program an EA for that, other than turning it on or off.

The exception is major USD news. Since this is the world reserve currency, some of its news can affect other currencies. In particular, interest rate news, and White House policy changes generally cause global market reactions. Think of it like the stock market where a rising tide raises all ships. That means that even a non-performing stock will show movement in accordance with its bigger competitors if the industry as a whole is affected by some news event.

For most conditions though (consistency), stick to the active market hours of the currencies of the pair. Years ago I did moving average analysis with a customized EA to determine an effective guide for measuring buyers against sellers. Unfortunately, I used a 24-hour analysis, which skewed my results because the momentum dies during dead trading periods, yet the trading signals persist. I found by deleting dead hours, the probability rose substantially. I typically trade from Frankfurt Open to New York lunch. If there is not a swing during those hours, it is most likely to occur after NY lunch. The money still has to move, lol, but if they do the same thing everyday, then anyone can learn to trade. While it is not common to swing the money after NY lunch, it does happen. The sign is a dead market when there should not be a dead market. For those times, I can do what your EA will never be able to do. I can use a higher time frame signal to show me the entry. Good Luck.

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