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IMO you’re almost certainly right. I’ll post here, where my reply can’t be blacked out by the OP.
The limitations of KISS
I’m neither knowledgeable nor bold enough to state categorically that KISS (“keep it simple”) can’t possibly work. But I think it’s very unlikely that a simple indicator-based EA will systematically deliver a guaranteed, low risk, consistent monthly profit, over several years of unknown, changing markets into the future.
Given the available technology, several million aspiring traders have already tested billions of trading strategies over many years. A system this obvious — or something very similar — would have been discovered a long time ago, and if profit was this easily attainable, virtually all retail traders would now be millionaires. Moreover, institutions would save themselves millions in salaries by replacing all of their highly paid veteran traders, expert analysts, PhD economists, etc with a simple EA.
Markets operate on a dynamic, willing-buyer-willing-seller, basis; price ultimately moves due to order volumes that are placed at each price level, and bulk-standard technical indicators don’t measure this type of volume. To be robust, EAs need to be based around recurrent underlying market truisms.
Trading has always been an activity where an elite minority — who have greater expertise, vastly more capital, immediate access to superior information, faster execution, lower dealing costs — eventually drain the accounts of the hapless majority.
I’d be absolutely delighted to be proved wrong, because I too would love to have a simple EA effortlessly generate a passive, risk-free, exponentially growing income for myself.
Optimism is commendable, but ultimately it’s reality that prevails.
Compliments of the season to everybody.